Pribble deserves it too

Juan Feliciano

After the championship game last night the league handed out awards to the top performers in the league. The award for best pitcher in the IBL in 2007 went to Juan Feliciano (JF). JF is a great pitcher. He throws a variety of pitches, has good movement on his pitches, hits his spots, changes speeds and hits 93 on the radar gun. He also played in the major leagues of Japan, he is an elite pitcher. Now that I have given JF his deserved respect I can say with a clean conscious that I believe that Aaron Pribble (AP) should have received the award or at least shared it with JF. The best batter award was shared between Gregg Raymundo and Eladio Rodriguez, so the idea of sharing an award is not unprecedented.

AP is a pitcher on the Tel Aviv Lightning. He is a 6’5” lefty who pitched for the division one University of Hawaii and went on to pitch successfully in the pros. He throws a fastball in the 80’s (tops out at around 87), has a great changeup, superb command of his pitches and he is smart. He is Glavine Lite.

Here is a why I believe he was the best pitcher in the IBL this season. First, every statistic has its shortcomings. They are all flawed in isolation. They gain value when viewed in context and support of other stats. But some stats are more valuable than others and often the baseball community attaches high value to weak stats and low value on more meaningful stats. For example a pitchers win loss record is pretty meaningless to me. A weak pitcher on a great hitting team can end up with a good record and a strong pitcher on a weak team can end up with a losing record (Andrew Morales had a 4.47 ERA, eleventh best in the IBL and had a 1-6 record). Wins and losses are the ultimate statistic in evaluating a team, not a pitcher. The good news is that JF and AP both won 7 games and though AP lost 2 and JF lost 1 there won lost records should not differentiate there performances.

ERA is not perfect stat by any means but generally speaking it is a valuable measure of pitcher effectiveness. AP led the league with a 1.94ERA and JF had a 1.97ERA. Both great and very similar so again not a differentiator.

My guess is that JF was given the award because he gave up only 28 hits in 50 innings while striking out and impressive 73. AP gave up 44 hits in 60 innings and struck out 57. Opposing hitters batted a mere 160 versus JF. Against AP batters batted a meager 203 which is extremely low but JF’s 160 is absurdly low. This is a differentiator. The 73 strike outs in 50 innings is also incredible and though AP had 57 strikeouts in his 60 innings it is simply not as sexy as 73.

Strikeouts and even more so strikeout to walk ratio can be a valuable scouting tool for determining if a pitcher will succeed. But once a pitcher has proven he can succeed without the gaudy strikeout numbers (in which case walks must be low) it becomes an exciting stat but not one that should be given much weight. Interestingly, AP’s k/bb ratio is slightly better than JF’s.

So why am I on a “give it to Pribble” campaign? Because AP faced significantly stiffer competition than JF and emerged with a slightly better ERA. Over 45% of the at bats against AP were facing Bet Shemesh a team with a 294 batting average and an extra base hit every 9 at bats. In the 28 innings against Bet Shemesh Aaron yielded only 3 earned runs (0.96ERA) gave up only 19 hits and beat them all four times he faced them. JF never had to face Bet Shemesh, the next best hitting team he had to face was the Tel Aviv Lightning. Tel Aviv batted 282 and hit an extra base hit every 15 at bats. 36.6% of the at bats that JF faced were against Tel Aviv. In contrast to AP’s domination of Bet Shemesh, JF gave up 15 hits in the 16 innings against Tel Aviv and yielded a very good but not dominating 7 earned runs (3.93 ERA).

Furthermore, only 17% of the at bats against AP were from the two weakest hitting teams (Raanana and Petah Tikva) as opposed to JF who faced them on 28% of the at bats against him. JF never gave up a run to either Petah Tikvah or Raanana, AP gave up one run to Petah Tikvah, none to Raanana.


Lastly, Leaguewide AP faced a 277 batting average while JF faced a 270 batting average.

So, who was the most effective pitcher in the IBL this season? I say Aaron Pribble, though I could make a good argument for both Juan Feliciano and Aaron Pribble to share the honor.

The Pioneers are breaking new ground

Under our new manager we are 4-4 and have won 4 of our last 7. We are playing like a reborn team under a positive manager, Tony Ferrara. He is a knowledgable, confidence building, unifying presence in the dugout. So take our low batting averages, High ERA's and weak fielding past and chuck them in the trash. The Pioneers are breaking new ground and ready to win the championship.

A couple of things. Ken Holztamn has gone home. He had some issues with the league and players and it was decided that it was best for all if he were to step away from the league.

Also, our 4-4 record under Tony does not include an unfortunate forfeit loss. The forfeit came after a player of ours, in the first inning of a scorless game could not accept a mind numbingly bad call by the umps. He was so upset that after being tossed from the game he decided to protest by not leaving the batters box. This is old news and for another blog entry.


Celebrating a win over the Miracle


Arrow (Aaron Rosdal), on the right and Seth Binder getting ready to bat. Arrow has incredible speed and a good glove, Seth is a great athlete.


Chopper (Dustin Melanson) get out of the way of an inside pitch


Big Daddy (Ryan Crotin) ready to pounce on a pitch during HR derby


Michael Olsen, our 18 year old catcher has excellent physical tools


From L to R - Butts (Ryan Butkowsky), Amo (Andrew Morales), Al (Alper Ulutas) and Schwartzy (Adam Goldman)


Feeling good after a win

Update on my pitching

Here are some interesting stats on my pitching. It is hard to say I have pitched well with an ERA above 7.00. But, it might not be as grim as it looks and here is why.

I have appeared in 15 games thus far (incidentally this is the most in the IBL.) Of those 15 appearances I have started 4 games and relieved in 11.

Batting average against me in those 11 relief appearances is .172
Batting average against me in my last 5 relief appearance .074
Batting average against me in my 4 starts is .355

Below is a chart demonstrating the gap between my relief and starting appearances as well as the improvement over the season.



Also interesting is my success against the mighty Blue Sox line up. I have pitched six innings against the Blue Sox and have given up only one hit and no runs. On the other hand, my pitching against Raanana, not a strong hitting team, has been terrible.



So what does it all mean? Well it demonstrates that so much of pitching is psychological. I never know when I am coming in to relieve. I am told to go warm up and I come in when I get the call. The second half of the season I have literally been lights out relieving no matter who I have faced. Starting is a whole different animal. I know a few days ahead of time that I will be starting and I do a lot of research on the hitters and develop a plan for the batters. I spend the days before a start thinking pretty much incessantly about the upcoming game. It turns out that this doesn’t work for me. Perhaps I over think and get to fine with my plan for each batter, perhaps the buildup gets me too tense. I am not sure, but I am starting Wednesday’s game and will be taking a different tact. I will only pitch the first three innings so I can be available for the playoffs. By the way, don’t count the Pioneers out, we might go all the way.

I also spent most of the season reworking my whole approach (mechanical as well as philosophical) to pitching. In the process I walked too many hitters and before I knew it I could not find my way back. Finally, with the exception of one bad outing where my arm muscles kept cramping up (deltoid and bicep of throwing arm, weird)I have solved that problem during second half of the season.

So I have shown lately that I have the “stuff” to be successful in this league, I just have to learn how to manage my approach to starting and leave the first half of the season walkathon in the past.

Winding Down

The season is winding down. By this time next week the first IBL season will be in the books and most of the players will be on planes heading home. Yesterday at the game I was trying to take in as much as I can knowing that soon it will just be a memory. Tomorrow is our last scheduled game at Gezer. I love that place. I say this as a romantic, a lover of baseball and of Israel.

As a pitcher…it has to be one of the least friendly parks ever created. A rough field where bounces take balls in many unpredictable directions, a non uniform slope upwards towards the outfield fences that are 280 feet down right field line and 316 to left. Gezer is the land where many routine fly balls have become homeruns. There is more but I think you get the picture.

But I will miss baseball here. The fans are enthusiastic, the field is situated among sunflower fields and rolling hills. I was talking to Ron Blomberg before a game at Gezer and he looked at the hills in the outfield and said “these are the hills of King Solomon.” Games usually end around twilight to beautiful sunsets. Some of my favorite moments this summer are going into the seats after a game to sign autographs for excited kids while watching the sun set. It is the field of dreams, it is perfect.


Twilight at Gezer


Homerun Derby at Gezer


Autographs at Gezer








You can see many great IBL pictures here

In Israel Paralell Worlds Converge

In 1972 I was 11 years old and lived in Israel. There was no baseball in Israel back then but I would take my glove and a tennis ball and throw endlessly against a stone wall in front of our house. I would pretend to be a Major Leaguer pitcher and the erratic bounces off the uneven wall were hits that I fielded. In those days the Jerusalem Post would publish the Major League standings once a week, delayed a couple days of course. I would go out early in the morning to beat my Dad to the newspaper which was delivered to our front stairs. I would glance at the standings outside and then bring him the paper. I loved baseball.

In 1972 Ken Holtzman was an elite Major League pitcher. He won nineteen games for the Oakland A’s that year and helped his team win the World Series by pitching them to victories in game one and four against the Cincinnati Reds. Kenny did not know me then but we were connected. I was a southpaw like Kenny, Jewish like Kenny and loved baseball like Kenny.


In 1972 the Olympics were held in Munich Germany. It was a big event in Israel, it was on TV and in my youthful naiveté I thought the Israeli athletes were sure to bring home some gold. When the Palestinian terror faction, Black September, shot dead two members of Israel’s Olympic team and took nine other team members hostage, I was heart-broken. Watching the masked terrorists on TV hour after hour and feeling the tension the adults around me were enduring, was disconcerting and haunting. Somehow I just felt that the athletes would be OK, they would survive. I was on the couch about 10 feet away from my mother when she answered the phone, suddenly she burst into tears, my world stood still, she sobbed, "they murdered all of the athletes." That moment sucked the naiveté of my youth from my core and replaced it with a gut punch whose impact will stick with me the rest of my life.


Back in the USA, upon hearing the news of the massacre Kenny and his Jewish teammate Mike Epstein walked around town for hours in shock. That day Kenny was scheduled to pitch against the second place White Sox. In an act that Kenny described as “the appropriate thing to do” he walked to the mound that day wearing a black arm band to honor and mourn the murdered Israeli’s. He wore it for all nine innings that he pitched and he beat the White Sox 9-1.

Kenny and I lived in parallel worlds. Worlds that were deeply connected yet were never to connect. In an unlikely twist the creation of the IBL altered the paths of our lives. On Monday Kenny will be leaving Missouri and I New Hampshire. We will journey thousands of miles away from our homes and converge at a another home that we share. Home plate in the Jewish Home land.

Pitching Wisdom from the Masters

My only day off is the day I pitch.
--- 7 time Cy Young Award Winner Roger Clemens


The wildest pitch is not necessarily the one that goes back to the screen. It can also be the one that goes right down the middle.
--- Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax


I became a good pitcher when I stopped trying to make them miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it.
--- Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax


I can be successful pitching away because I keep the ball down and keep them honest inside.
--- 2 time Cy Young Award Winner Tom Glavine


Hit the catchers target with 2 or 3 different speeds and the rest will take care of itself.
--- Hall of Famer Robin Roberts advice to Ken Holtzman



If I tried to throw harder than I could, the ball went slower than it normally would.
--- 3 time Cy Young Award Winner Tom Seaver


If you make a mistake inside it’s a single if you make a mistake inside it’s a homerun.
---- Hall of Famer Bob Gibson



Our idea is simple: command the fastball and change speeds
--- Leo Mazzone, Major League Pitching Coach and in my opinion, one of the best.


If my curveball is breaking and I’m throwing it where I want, the batter is irrelevant.
--- Cy Young Award Winner Steve Stone


Once I am on the mound pitching becomes all about confidence.
--- 7 time Cy Young Award Winner Roger Clemens


Everybody talks about Schilling’s arm and great control, but nobody prepares for a start like he does. He studies the opposition’s hitters like he is preparing for a test.
--- Red Sox Manager Terry Francona


Only three or four outs directly affect the outcome of the game.
--- 3 time Cy Young Award Winner Tom Seaver



Your supposed to win when you have all your pitches working for you. You haven’t become a good pitcher until you can win when you don’t have anything.
--- Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax


Never the same pitch twice, never the same place twice, never the same speed twice.
--- 1951 All Star, 1953 ERA leader and winner of 5 world Series Eddie Lopat


Show me a guy who can't pitch inside and I'll show you a loser.
--- Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax



When they're in a jam, a lot of pitchers...try to throw harder. Me, I try to locate better.
--- 4 time Cy young Award Winner Greg Maddux


The fastball is the best pitch in baseball. It's like having five pitches, if you move it around.
--- 3 time All Star Luis Tiant



“Keep the ball down and your hopes up!”
--- 2 no hitters, 2 All Star Games and 5 World Series rings, Pioneer Manager Ken Holtzman

Major League Confession

I have something to tell you that you probably can’t relate to. I hope you don’t judge me too harshly.

I guess I have what people would call a mistress. We get together often during the summer months and then she leaves. Oddly, there is no prohibition against this in Jewish law. In my defense Julie knows about it. She is not always happy about our relationship but generally speaking she understands the love I have for my mistress. It is a passion that is hard to describe but it is so sensual, complete and magical. I am telling you this as a warning. She will be leaving shortly as the weather gets cool. She hates the cold. When she leaves I often get depressed for a while.

I am sure you have met her. Her name is baseball. My depression usually leaves when football arrives. I love football too. I guess I am a hopeless romantic philanderer.

Be well, Ari

I wrote the above paragraphs as an email to my manager and friend in 1999. I was the creative director in a technology consulting firm and had a large workload and felt he needed to be warned of my impending dip in spirits. I also knew he would get a chuckle. My wife, Julie, saved this email unbeknownst to me and presented it to me a few days ago.

The Rookie and the Legend

September 24th, 1966 was Yom Kippur. On that day the two most winning Jewish pitchers in the history of baseball were not at the ball field because they chose to honor their heritage. The pitchers were Sandy Koufax and Ken Holtzman. Sandy is a legend, one of the greatest pitchers the game has ever seen. In 1966 he won the Cy Young Award which is given to the best pitcher in the major leagues. He had also won the honor the previous year and two years before that, he was simply dominating. Today I can say that Ken Holtzman is the winningest Jewish pitcher of all time, he won 174 games, Koufax won 165. I can also say that he owns 5 world series rings, played in two all star games and pitched two no hitters. But in 1966 Kenny, as he is called, was a rookie. I can only wonder what he was thinking and feeling in Synagogue on September 24th, knowing that the next day he was to take the mound against a living legend, Sandy Koufax.



On that Yom Kippur day in 1966 Koufax owned a 25-8 record, he was still on top of his game but his arm was ravaged. He would retire only a few weeks later. The two Jewish southpaws would face each other only this once, the rookie versus the legend.

Kenny was a Chicago Cub and the game was played at Wrigley field so the visiting Dodgers were up first. Kenny took the mound and quickly laid down the Dodgers one two three. In retrospect Kenny seems to thrive under pressure, he has a 4-1 record and a 2.55 ERA in World Series play. The Cubs scored the only two runs they were to get that day in their first try at bat. So Kenny had a 2-0 lead but with Koufax on the mound you had to know that the lead would not grow. In the second inning Kenny was to face the heart of their lineup, the number 3-4-5 hitters. Not a problem, he struck out number 3 and 5 and the cleanup hitter grounded to short. This went on all game. Koufax pitched a complete game giving up only four hits and one earned run. But that day the rookie out dueled the master. After eight full innings, Kenny had not given up a hit let alone a run. If it wasn’t for a third inning walk to Dick Schofield he would have had a perfect game going into the ninth and final inning. As it turns out Schofield was the first batter he had to face in the final inning and he hit a single up the middle. Kenny ended the game with a two hitter and the win. …And that’s the story of the greatest game two Jews ever pitched against each other.

I get to pitch and coach for Kenny this summer. I will get the inside scoop on that game and many others and report back.

Documentary

A movie maker heard my baseball story, gave my wife his business card and told her that I should give him a call. About a month later I did, we had a couple meetings. The producer thought that not only was the story interesting but I could tell it well. So now they are filming a documentary about it.

The story braids a few interesting paths, each rare unto itself, but the fact that they all come together in one life is unique. The reactions I get from people who hear it, the press and now from the movie makers, have been quite remarkable.

Briefly, this is the deal. I loved baseball and had talent but could not play organized ball because I grew up as an observant Jew and also spent key childhood years in Israel. The first time I played organized baseball I was almost 24 years old. I was a lefty armed with a 90mph fastball and the experience level of a tee ball player. By the time I could harness my talent I had a family and was too old to pursue a baseball career. Along comes the IBL. Thinking it is absurd to start playing pro ball at 45, I skip the first tryout being held a couple hour drive from my house. Next tryout is being held in Petach Tikvah, Israel, the same town where my parents and siblings live. I can resist no longer and fly over for the tryout. Dan Duquette, ex general manager of my beloved Red Sox, watches the tryout and bingo I am offered a contract to play pro ball. There’s quite a bit more but that is it in a nutshell.

They started shooting a couple weeks ago. The plan is to do a lot of filming over the next few weeks and then they will follow to Israel. The first filming was at opening day for the Eagles, a team I play for in Manchester, NH. It was a little nerve racking for a few reasons. First, it was opening day. But I had also been working out over the winter and was eager to test some of the stuff I have been working on against live batters. And of course, I had no idea what to expect with the filming. I also did not know how the team would react with a camera not only following me around but them too.

Everything turned out fine. Warming up with a camera in my face was not what I was used to but I was very focused on the job at hand, and did not really let it effect me. The team also operated as if nothing was happening. As for the game itself, we won 7-0. I pitched the first three innings, gave up no runs, striking out seven but walking three. I could feel I needed to work on some mechanical issues. My goal the next game was to iron out some mechanics and not to issue any walks. The next game I pitched the first five innings giving up no walks or earned runs, unfortunately we lost the game in the bottom of the ninth inning. It was a sloppy game by both teams. I am in a strange spot. I view my Eagles season as my pre season for the IBL. I want to try and test new things. On the other hand, this is not pre season for the Eagles, so I need to pitch optimally for their sake. I try to balance the two. The one mistake I made was throwing three consecutive splitters and leaving the third one up and in. It was hit for a long double. Luckily, I got out of the inning unscathed.

This is where the filming got a little weird. On Sunday night the film guys came to my house to start interviewing. Though I have no problem talking to the camera, I found myself saying things that if taken out of context can make me sound more than a little wacky.
In a couple weeks filming will be done in Teaneck, New Jersey. My best friend Yitzie and I will go around to the old neighborhood where we grew up playing stickball.

Israel Baseball League Field Work

Using Google Earth and Emap I tracked down pre-renovation satellite photos of the baseball fields at Gezer, Tel Aviv and Petah Tikvah.

While doing the research I noticed that the altitude above sea level of the fields are as follows, Gezer - 395ft, Baptist Field (Petah Tikvah) - 78ft and Sportek (Tel Aviv) - 24ft. It got me wondering, how much more will the ball carry at the Gezer field as opposed to the Sportek Field which is right on the Mediterranean Sea?

I found this information from the book titled the Physics of Baseball. A ball that would travel 400 feet in "normal" conditions goes:

• 6 feet farther if the altitude is 1,000 feet higher


• 4 feet farther if the air is 10 degrees warmer


• 4 feet farther if the ball is 10 degrees warmer


• 4 feet farther if the barometer drops 1 inch of mercury

Using the information above, with all other relevant criteria being equal, a ball hit 400 feet in Tel Aviv will travel approximately an additional 2.5 feet at Gezer. So if you see a home run clear the fence at Gezer field by a foot or two you know there was a reasonable chance it would have been caught at the Sportek
Field.

Click the images to view a larger photograph












See the map below to view the field locations in the context of the country.